| Topic | Lectures | Key Points , Resources & Learning Goals |
|---|---|---|
| A. Intro | Overview of What? Where? When? Why? Who? Needed international aid from many countries; e.g. the South African firefighters at a morning briefing. |
• Three mid-latitude cyclones affected this fire in 2023. • Record-breaking fire conditions that year, see CIFFC 2023 Fire Season Report. By the end of Sep 2023, Canada had120 days at National Preparedness Level 5. • Seasonal statistics from GWIS (select year, continent, country) : https://gwis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/gwis.statistics/seasonaltrend • Learning Goals: Define what a fire complex is. Determine the Fire Preparedness Level for this and other fires. Access CIFFC and GWIS to get UPDATED characteristics and statistics of this fire. |
B. Antecedent / Precursor Conditions.
|
Spring Dip was happening, see lecture snippet K02 by Chris Rodell (3:20). Also, the prolonged drought was evident in the Build Up Index (BUI), see lecture snippet K03 by Chris Rodell (view first minute only). |
• Use Worldview satellite observations of "Land Surface Reflectance" (showing vegetation greenness, bare ground, and burned areas) to compare the dryness during Spring Dip in May vs. later insummer when vegetation has greened-up in July. • Learning Goals: Use observed and modeled climate and fire weather to determine precursor conditions for the fire. |
| C. Ignition Source & Associated Weather | Cyclone #1 with a very weak cold front triggers convection with "dry lightning" that ignites the fire on 4 May 2023. Watch the next minute Rodell's K03 snippet (1:00 - 2:00). |
• Learning Goals: Use the blitzortung.org website to locate current and historical lightning strikes. |
| D. Fire Weather (cyclones & fronts) and Behavior of Fire and Smoke. | Cyclone #2 with strong dry cold front on 15 May 2023. Watch the remainder of Rodell's K03 snippet (2:00 - 4:30). See how the "dry"cold front is well defined in the satellite video of smoke, although an interesting complication might be a double front. Caution about interpreting smoke streaks vs. flow streamlines (see Stull section 17.8). Continue following the evolution of Cyclone #2 and its very non-idealized fronts shown on the surface weather map. See Chris Rodell's lecture snippet K04 (2:22). |
• Use Worldview satellite imagery see how wildfire smoke can be used to identify cold-frontal passage from the second cyclone on 15 May. |
| E. Methods to Forecast Extra-tropical Cyclones | Look at upper-level charts to see what supported (i.e., enabled cyclogenesis of) the surface low #2. See Chris Rodell's lecture snippets K05 (4:28) and K06 (2:27) and K07 (1:05). | Learning Goals: For a 5-D image (= 3-D in space + 1 D of time + 1 D of multi-variables) in your mind for the nature of the atmosphere as relates to cyclone #2. Identify short waves in the jet stream, and see how they move and intensify. Identify factors that can cause cyclogenesis. |
| F. Synoptic Discussion of an upslope Rain Event that Reduced the Fire. | Cyclone #3, on 22 May 2023. See Chris Rodell's lecture snippets K08 (1:01) and K09 (1:18). Upslope cloud formation is explained in met.concepts mc06.3 (skip to the "upslope clouds" section). NWP model skill vs. lead time for predicting the upper-air cut-off low and associated rain. (See Chris Rodell's lecture snippet K10 (4:28). |
Learning Goals: Illustrate lee cyclogenesis, cut-off lows, and nearly stationary lows. Explain the process of air blowing up the slopng terrain, causing upslope clouds and precipitation. Identify which sector of the cyclone caused that flow. Relate NWP forecast skill to lead time. |
| G. Special Meteorological Aspects | A fourth cyclone was also involved. After cyclone #2 had left the area, a ridge formed over the Kimiwan Complex fire. As that ridge broke down, a new cyclone (call it Cyclone #2 and a half) formed on 19 May, causing a dry cold front over the fire. A few days later, Cyclone #3 was active. See a week-long video (18-25 May 2023) from GOES West. Utilize wind streamline animations in the Fire Weather Foecast model to describe upslope flows around cyclone #3 during 22-24 May 2023 causing clouds and precip. over the fire. Compare the satellite imagery with the weather maps in the Forecast Tools. |
Identify warm and cold fronts by looking a wind convergence patterns in the flow. |
| Weather Briefing | Short (10 minute) weather briefing on Vancouver weather by a student team. Utilize the weather-briefing "cookbook" to select which images and movies to show. | Give a well structured weather briefing using appropriate maps and graphs, and finishing within the alotted time. Gain experience in public speaking and working as a team. Strengthen your understanding of atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics. Strengthen your ability to form a 3-D picture of the weather in your mind. Utilize appropriate terminology and jargon. |
| H. Impacts | YouTube videos from helicopter fighting the Kimiwan Complex fires. or same video here . | Also, go back to the news stories on the home page for the Kimiwan Complex fires. |
| I. Conclusions & Recommendations | Summary. Insights and/or lessons learned, as might be applicable to future fires. | The synoptic theories taught on Tuesdays directly translate into fire weather and fire behavior forecasts illustrated on Thursdays. |
| J. Labs / HWs | 1) Kimiwan cyclone#1 ignition lab 2) Kimiwan cyclone#2 cold front lab 3) Kimiwan cyclone#3 up-slope clouds & precip |
Due in a week. |
Misc Resources for the Current Year:
• Alberta Wildfire Status Dashboard.
• Chris Rodell's Fire Weather Forecast Maps, including Fire Weather Indices .