UBC ATSC 413 - Forest-fire Weather & Climate

Thursday Schedule

(Follow this schedule to access fire cases, online lectures, homeworks, and quizzes. In this hybrid course, material is presented both in person and online.)


Week 13 Thursday:      Theme:  Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Topic Activities & Assignments Learning Goals. By the end of this section, you will be able to ...
Intro

Start reviewing the topics below and answering the assignment questions in class as Lab work, and finish at home as homework. Submit via Canvas within a week after today.

Focus your studies of the topics below in order to answer the attached Lab/Homework questions.
NWP Fundamentals See mc09.1 . List all the steps in typical NWP.
Explain the pros and cons NWP compared to forecasts made by humans.
Data Assimilation See Stull 2018, Practical Meteorology, Chapter 20, section 20.5.2 (p765 - 768). Explain the role of data assimilation, and how it converts irregularly spaced weather observations into a regular gridded analysis. List two methods for doing data assimilation.
NWP Models In-class activity: Compile a list of operational NWP models that are easily accessible via apps that access the internet. Select the one or two NWP models that you trust the most, and which provide the forecast products that you want to make fire-weather forecasts.
Weather Briefing Short (10 minute) weather briefing on Vancouver weather by a student team. Utilize the weather-briefing "cookbook" to select which images and movies to show. Give a well structured weather briefing using appropriate maps and graphs, and finishing within the alotted time. Gain experience in public speaking and working as a team. Strengthen your understanding of atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics. Strengthen your ability to form a 3-D picture of the weather in your mind. Utilize appropriate terminology and jargon.
Forecast Challenge Tutorial Observe Lynn Engel as she accesses NWP models, observations, satellite and radar images, and other data to make a point forecast of temperature, precipitation, winds, and humidity. Make your own fire weather forecast using NWP and other data available via the internet.
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