| Topic | Topic | Method & Info |
|---|---|---|
| A. Intro | Overview: • Where? with •Fire Perimeter. • What? When? Why? • Who? • Motivation. Timeline Narrative: Declared as "Being Held" on 13 May. But escaped twice (17-20 May, and 29 May) due to changes in extreme weather conditions. (or view a lecture snippet HL01a by Chris Rodell) |
In addition to your own searches via Google ... • What, When, Why: Use the link for your case that we provide https://www.eoas.ubc.ca/courses/atsc413/cases/index.html . • Where: Use your own map(s), or the Geography links we provide near the bottom of the website for your case. |
| B. Antecedent / Precursor Conditions. | Climate, anomalies, forest & fuel type, moisture-code values, etc. in the months and week before the fire. |
• GWIS: Turn on the Fire Danger Forecast, Select the Date, and select various indices, including FWI and BUI. DC and BUI give one indication of longer-term drought conditions. • Also, the Timeline narrative indicates Spring Dip was happening, with lots of dry grasses. |
| C. Ignition Source & Associated Weather - First Rapid Fire Growth | Synoptic and mesoscale weather on the day of ignition. |
• Blitzortung: Select Historical. Select North America. Scroll to the ending date; e.g., 13 May 2019 with 48 hour loop. • Surface weather map: click on the calendar button, select date, then zoom. Note that Mountain Daylight Time is 6 h behind UTC (Z) time. • Worldview: select the date at bottom left, turn on place labels and boarders/coastlines, select Terra and Aqua/ MODIS orbital tracks, and turn on Fires and Thermal Anomalie.s |
| D(1). Fire Weather & Behavior - First Rapid Fire Growth | Co-evolution of the weather and the fire. Associated dynamics, thermodynamics, synoptics, and mesoscale weather. • Use the Forecast Tools tab on our course webpage. Select the High Level tab, and the double click on the initialization time for the NWP forecast. (or view a lecture snippet HL01d) by Chris Rodell) |
• Use our Forecast Tools to try to form a 3-D image in your mind about the weather. Start with a large-scale view at the top of the troposphere (25 kPa) where the jet-stream core is. Then look at maps lower toward the ground (50 kPa, then 85 kPa) zoomed in to the regions, then surface values zoomed in to local conditions. Look at the movement of ridges and troughs, and use them to explain the evolution that you already saw on the surface weather maps and of the fire-weather-index evolution. |
| (E). Special Meteorological Aspects - First Rapid Fire Growth | This aggressive fire behavior was associated with a "low-level jet" of fast moving winds. • Use the Forecast Tools tab on our website. |
• Use our Forecast Tools. In the Left frame, select "Case Specific", then select "Cross Section (High Level)". |
| Weather Briefing | Short (10 minute) weather briefing on Vancouver weather by a student team. Utilize the weather-briefing "cookbook" to select which images and movies to show. | Give a well structured weather briefing using appropriate maps and graphs, and finishing within the alotted time. Gain experience in public speaking and working as a team. Strengthen your understanding of atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics. Strengthen your ability to form a 3-D picture of the weather in your mind. Utilize appropriate terminology and jargon. |
| D(2). Fire Weather & Behavior - 2nd Rapid Fire Growth | • Review the Timeline Narrative from row A above. (or see a lecture snippet HL02a by Chris Rodell) • Access the Worldview of satellite-observed hot spots to document the 2nd rapid growth. (or see a lecture snippet HL02b by Chris Rodell) • Access 25 kPa & 50 kPa NWP weather maps for this new time interval via the Forecast Tools button in the page header above. Examine how a dominant long-wave ridge broke down during passage of a short-wave trough. (or see lecture snippet HL02c by Chris Rodell) • Use 85 kPa NWP maps of winds and humidity using our Forecast Tools to discern a cold front that moved over the fire. (or see lecture snippet HL02d by Chris Rodell) • Access the 100 m, 10 m, and surface weather maps for wind, humidity, and temperature via the Forecast Tools button. Tie the frontal-related weather (03Z and 06Z on 30 May 2019) to fire-fuel-indices and fire-weather-indices to explain why the fire evolved the way it did. (or see lecture snippets HL02e and HL02f by Chris Rodell) |
Class Labwork / Homework: See the High Level Fire Assignment. Recommendation: do this as a group, and submit one completed assignment that will apply to all the members in the group. This work will help you to: |
| F. Impacts | Impacts of the fire (and smoke where relevant) on people, industry, environment, etc. | . |
| G. Conclusions & Recommendations | Summary. Insights and/or lessons learned, as might be applicable to future fires. | By the end of this fire case, you will be able to: • Synthesize your fire, synoptics, and dynamics knowledge into a coherent understanding that you can describe to other technical and lay personnel. • Demonstrate that ability in weather briefings that you give. |