UBC ATSC 413 - Forest-fire Weather & Climate

Syllabus Schedule - Part 3

(Follow this schedule to access fire cases, meteorology, online lectures, homeworks, and quizzes. In this hybrid course, material is presented both in person and online.)

Under construction.

 

G. Fort McMurray Fire   (& wildland-urban interface fires)

Date Item Topic Assignment Learning Goals. By the end of this section, you will be able to ...
Day 21 on 23 Nov 2023 G1 Ft. McMurray Fire (Horse River fire) Use the Rubric to evaluate the 45-minute presentation on the Fort McMurray, AB, given by Groups 6 & 7. Discuss the interaction between the fire and weather for this case. Make fire-weather forecasts, considering synoptic, mesoscale, terrain, and other factors. Improve your ability to work in a team and make presentations.
Day 21 on 23 Nov 2023 G2 WUI A 20 minute Cascadia video nature of fires at wildland-urban interface (WUI) and their impacts on society. (Excellent reference: John Vaillant, 2023: "Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast".) Explain why WUI fires are increasing, and what can be done to reduce their impact. Discuss impacts of the fire on the community, local industry, and implications if the Horse River fire had disrupted the oil-sands operations.
Day 21 on 23 Nov 2023 G3 Lab 30 minutes:
• The groups who will present the next 2 fire cases will plan which students present which parts. Resources: Presentation Tips and use the the link to those Fire Cases.
• The other groups start the assigned reading about the weather associated with the Ft. McMurray fire (Tymstra et al 2021).		 Explain the weather factors and fire indices that affected the Horse River (Fort McMurray) wildfire.
due in a week G4 Homework All students finish the assigned reading and independently write the Quiz in Canvas. Synthesize the findings of the assigned paper in the broader context of Canadian resilience to natural disasters.

 

H. Paradise / Camp Fire   (& fire issues in steep mountainous terrain)

Date Item Topic Assignment Learning Goals. By the end of this section, you will be able to ...
Day 22 on 28 Nov 2023 H1 Guest Speakers 50 minute presentation, by NRCan fire scientists Ginny Marshall & Quinn Barber (tbd)
Day 22 on 28 Nov 2023 H2 Paradise / Camp Fire Use the Rubric to evaluate the 45-minute presentation on the Camp Fire / Paradise, California, wildfire, as presented by Groups 4 & 5. Discuss the interaction between the fire and weather for this case. Make fire-weather forecasts, considering synoptic, mesoscale, terrain, sounding, and other factors. Improve your ability to work in a team and make presentations.
due in a week H3 homework • Read section 17.10 in Stull, 2018 Practical Meteorology, on the topic of Downslope Winds.
• Read the asgined paper on a meteorological analysis of the Camp Fire event (Brewer & Clements, 2020).
• Independently write the Quiz. 		Explain the climatology of diablo wind events, and the synoptics set-up that lead to the Camp Fire. Describe the behavior of, and conditions needed, for Bora winds and Foehn and Chinook winds. Consider dynamic effects (winds, pressure gradients, terrain slope) and thermodynamic effects (soundings, boundary layer characteristics).
Day x xx      

 

 

J. Quebec Fires    (& wildfire smoke)

Date Item Topic Assignment Learning Goals. By the end of this section, you will be able to ...
Day 23 on 30 Nov 2023 J 1 Quebec Fire Complex Use the Rubric to evaluate the 45-minute presentation on the Quebec fire complex, as presented by Groups 1, 2 & 3. Discuss the interaction between the fire and weather for this case. Make fire-weather forecasts, considering synoptic, mesoscale, terrain, soundings, and other factors. Improve your ability to work in a team and make presentations.
Day 23 on 30 Nov 2023 J 2 Wildfire Smoke Forecasting A 20 minute presentation by Rodell, Stull, and/or McKinney on the BlueSky-Canada wildfire smoke forecasting system, the hysplit Lagrangian trajectory model, and associated issues. List the components of a wildfire smoke model such as BlueSky-Canada. Explain how winds and turbulence affect the subsequent smoke dispersion. Describe how the Hysplit Lagrangian smoke dispersion model works and how to use it. Derive and use the Eulerian Gaussian plume model. (Hint, see lecture slides in Met_Concepts section mc06.)
Day 23 on 30 Nov 2023 J3 Lab 30 minutes:
• The groups who will present the next fire case will plan which students present which parts. Resources: Presentation Tips and use the the link to those Fire Cases.
• The other groups start the assigned reading about wildfire smoke dispersion modeling by O'Neill et al, 2024.
• Also read the assigned paper on wildfire plume rise by Moisseeva & Stull, 2021.		 Discuss worldwide efforts in wildfire smoke modeling. Explain the innovations of the Moisseeva plume-rise approach.
due in a week J4 Homework All students finish the assigned reading and independently write the Quiz in Canvas. Synthesize the findings of the assigned paper in the broader context of wildfire smoke dispersion as affects Canadian health and environment.

 

 

K. Marshall Fire   (& complex fire weather)

Date Item Topic Assignment Learning Goals. By the end of this section, you will be able to ...
Day 24 on 5 Dec 2023 K1 Forecasting jobs with ECCC 50 minute presention on Careers with ECCC, including question period, by Mariette Kulin, an Environment Canada (ECCC) recruitment and training officer. Determine what items in your resume are of most interest to ECCC.
Day 24 on 5 Dec 2023 K2 Marshall Fire Use the Rubric to evaluate the 45-minute presentation on the Marshall, Colorado, wildfire, as presented by Groups 8 & 9. Discuss the interaction between the fire and weather for this case. Make fire-weather forecasts, considering synoptic, mesoscale, terrain, and other factors. Improve your ability to work in a team and make presentations.
due in a week K3 homework

• Read section 17.7 in Stull, 2018 Practical Meteorology, on mountain waves.
• Read the assigned paper on the synoptic setup of the downslope windstorm, by Fovell, R.G.; Brewer, M.J.; Garmong, R.J., 2022
• Independently write the quiz.

 Explain interacting factors including the anticedent climate, synoptic set-up, pre-frontal mesoscale situation, mountainous terrain, types of regional flows, sounding profile, winter fires, and frontal passage.
x xx      

 

L. Synthesis & Climate Change Issues

Date Item Topic Assignment Learning Goals. By the end of this section, you will be able to ...
Day 25 on 7 Dec 2023 L1 Climate Change & Wildfires Read the paper by Flannigan, Krawchuk, de Groot, Wotton, and Gowman. 2009. Implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. International Journal of Wildland Fire. 18:483-507. https://doi.org/10.1071/WF08187. Discuss the implications of changing climate for global wildland fire. 
Day 25 on 7 Dec 2023 L2 Synthesis

See the NWCG-fire poster.
Reprise of Indigenous forest fire management benefits.
Also see Met_Concepts mc11 COMET module on Tactical Fire Weather Forecasting.

Synthesize the various factors that we discussed in the course (winds, clouds, heat, humidity, rain, fuels, topography, fire behavior, smoke plumes) to explain how they are relevant to wildfires (as illusted in the NWCG poster).

Compare indigenous fire practices vs. government fire policy over the past century, and how it has affected wildfire behavior as evidenced in tree-ring scars (e.g., as shown in the Cascadia video by UBC Prof. Lori Daniels). Find this video on the Bibliography web page for the course (via the Textbooks link from the home page).
Day 25 on 7 Dec 2023 L3 Lab Lab Group work: create table of modern NWP models. Also, Finish the previous quiz. Compare attributes of different NWP and AI methods of weather forecasting (based on the table created by all the students).
End of Course L4 Closure "FireStorm" Weather Channel documentary (42 minutes) on wildfire fighting: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWY2kTr_u-I (Not a learning goal. But a good video to end the course with.)