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| Date | Item | Topic | Assignment | Learning Goals. By the end of this section, you will be able to ... |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day 11 on 17 Oct 2023 |
E1 | Surface map analysis | Read all the met concepts topics in section mc05.1, including map analysis instructions and exercises. Review how cyclones and associated fronts evolve and move. Practice analyzing surface weather maps and identifying surface fronts (see Stull p280-281 in Chapter 9) by their pressure, temperature, humidity, and wind signatures. Lab Exercise - In class, do map analyses for items mc05.1b and f . Homework: Analyze isotherms, isobars, highs, lows, and fronts, given the surface observations of exercise mc05.1g. |
Interpret surface weather info from station plot models. Draw isotherms, isobars, and other isopleths given the plotted surface data, given data that is sometimes missing, incorrect, or illegible. Explain what defines a weather front, and how to analyze them on weather maps. |
| Day 12 on 19 Oct 2023 |
E2 | Wildfire ignition basics | Read the fire-basics on wildfire ignition and lightning fb7.
xxx. Lab Exercise - Give a weather briefing. [see Piazza for the weather briefing schedule] |
Explain what is needed for wildfire to ignite, and compare nature vs. human sources of ignition. Access and utilize lightning-detection networks and lightning forecast sites. |
| Day 12 on 19 Oct 2023 |
E3 | Overview, ignition & initial growth | Read the Kimiwan fire characteristics and evolution. Learn of some of the impacts and stories in the news. Access CIFFC and GWIS to get fire statistics and the National Preparedness Level. View the associated lecture snippet K01 by Chris Rodell, if you missed lecture.
xxx. Lab Exercise - Kimiwan Complex ignition and initial growth. |
Define what a fire complex is. Determine the Fire Preparedness Level for this and other fires. Access CIFFS and GWIS to get characteristics and statistics of this fire. Identify relevant surface features and synoptic features affecting ignition and initial growth. Relate mesoscale convective indices such as CAPE to potential thunderstorm intensity. |
| Day 12 on 19 Oct 2023 |
E4 | Spring Dip | Learn the basics about Spring Dip, and relate it to the Kimiwan fire. Access the Alberta Wildfire Status Dashboard for the main fire ID SWF-068. Utilize the WorldView "land surface reflectance" product to see satellite images of vegetion/fuels during and after the spring dip. View the associated lecture snippet K02 by Chris Rodell, if you missed lecture.
xxx. |
Define "spring dip", explain what causes it, and how it affects fires. Utilize the "land surface reflectance" product in WorldView satellite imagery to view and explain how the spring dip affected the Kimiwan complex. |
| Day 13 on 24 Oct 2023 |
E5 | Precursor Conditions & Ignition - Cyclone #1 | Examine drought intensity via the fire-weather Build-up Index. Determine lightning locations from the first weak front that might have ignited the fire on 4 May 2023. More about other fire weather indices: fuel types (fb18), rate of spread (fb19), head fire intensity (fb20), etc. xxx. |
Use observed and modeled climate and fire weather to determine precursor conditions for the fire. Use the blitzortung.org website to locate current and historical lightning strikes. |
| Day 13 on 24 Oct 2023 |
E6 | Surface fronts: horiz. and vert. structure | Do the readings given in mc05.2 thru mc05.3. | Describe the arrangement and evolution of temperature, pressure, winds, clouds, and precipitation for warm and cold fronts. Anticipate the weather changes associated with frontal passage. Explain the synergy between cyclones and fronts. |
| Day 14 on 26 Oct 2023 |
E7 | Fronts: mid & upper troposphere. Frontogenesis |
Do the readings given in mc05.4 thru mc05.6. | Describe the structure and formation of occluded fronts. Explan howTROWALS are associated with occluded fronts. Discuss tropopause folds and upper-level fronts. Examine different theories for fronts and cyclones, including various conveyor-belt and cyclogenesis approaches. |
| Day 15 on 31 Oct 2023 | E8 | Fire Growth and Change - Cyclone #2 | See how the "dry"cold front is well defined in the satellite video of smoke, although an interesting complication might be a double front. Caution about interpreting images of smoke streaklines vs. trajectories vs. streamlines (Stull section 17.8). View the associated lecture snippet K04 by Chris Rodell to see how the second cyclone and fronts evolved, affecting the Kimiwan complex. [Topics for the lab exercise: Use Worldview satellite imagery see how wildfire smoke can be used to identify cold-frontal passage from the second cyclone on 15 May. View the associated lecture snippet K03 by Chris Rodell, if you missed lecture. ] Lab Exercise - Give a weather briefing. Lab Exercise: See handout for the Kimiwan Complex fires, for the cold front(s) of cyclone #2. |
Use satellite imagery to identify mid-latitude cyclones and fronts. Use tracers such as smoke to help locate fronts. xxx |
| Day 15 on 31 Oct 2023 | E9 | Upper-air Support - Cyclone #2 | Discussion of upper-level fronts (mc05.5) and frontogenesis (mc05.6). Learn how divergence in the upper troposphere leads to cyclogenesis (Rodell's lecture snippet K05). Use this info to explain why cyclone #2 strengthened (Rodell's lecture snippet K06). Follow the evolution of the 50 kPa trough and closed low (Rodell's lecture snippet K07). | Explain the relationship between upper-air patterns and the role of divergence in cyclogenesis. Explain the terms in the kinematic frontogenesis eq. Describe the role of thermodynamics and dynamics in frontogenesis. Explain the relationship between upper-level fronts, tropopause folds, atmospheric rivers, and surface fronts. |
| Day 16 on 2 Nov 2023 | E10 | Cyclone #3 - Evolution | An overview of the characteristics of cyclone #3 (Rodell's lecture snippet K08), its formation via lee cyclogenesis (Rodell's lecture snippet K09), and upper-level interaction and difficulties in making forecasts (Rodell's lecture snippet K10). Multi-day (18-25 May 2023) GOES-west video of cyclones & smoke in W. Canada. See cyclone#2 leaving the area. See ridge breakdown, creating cyclone#2.5 (19 May) with dry cold front over fire. Lab Exercise - Give a weather briefing. |
Explain how lee cyclogenesis works. Explain how surface cyclones can lose upper-air support and die. Describe the change of NWP forecast skill with lead time. Explain what happend during ridge breakdown. |
| Day 17 on 7 Nov 2023 |
E11 | Cyclone #3 - Upslope Flow & Precipitation | Re-view the Multi-day GOES-west video again from item E10 above, showing cyclone #3. Review mc06.3 on convective cumuliform clouds vs. upslope stratiform clouds. Describe upslope flows around cyclone #3 during 22-24 May 2023 causing clouds and precip. over the fire, by viewing wind streamline animations in the Fire Weather Foecast model. Compare the satellite imagery with the weather maps in the Forecast Tools. Start tephigram lectures (see item F1 below). |
Describe how the average terrain slope in the prairie provinces can enable precipitation if winds are from the east. |
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| Date | Item | Topic | Assignment | Learning Goals. By the end of this section, you will be able to ... |
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| Day 18 on 9 Nov 2023 | F1 | Tephigrams | Tephigrams (mc07): Review the origins of the tephigram, and the types of lines on it. See how to determine (1) thermodynamic state, (2) processes such as lifting that change the state, (3) plotting environmental soundings, (4) determining buoyancy, (5) CAPE and Tstorms, (6) static & dynamic stability. Lab Exercise - Give a weather briefing. |
Be able to plot soundings on tephigrams, determine instabilities including deep convection (thunderstorms), and interpret soundings. |
| Day 19 on 16 Nov 2023 | F2 | Sparks Lake demo briefing | Use the Rubric to evaluate the 45-minute presentation on the Sparks Lake, BC, fire. This is a demo presentation given by Jalena Bennett, to serve as a model for upcoming group presentations for the 4 remaining fire cases. |
Discuss the interaction between the fire and weather for this case. Make fire-weather forecasts, considering synoptic, mesoscale, terrain, and other factors. Improve your ability to work in a team and make presentations. |
| Day 19 on 16 Nov 2023 | F3 | PyroCB | Lecture by Rodell on pyroCB (cumulonimbus flammagenitus). Lab Exercise - Give a weather briefing. |
Explain the atmospheric and fire conditions necessary to form a pyrocb. Describe the hazards associated with pyrocb, and how it affects fire fighting. Locate the geographies where pyrocb are most frequent. |
| Day 20 on 21 Nov 2023 | F4 | ABL & NWP | First 50 minutes: Lecture by Stull on Atmos. Boundary Layer (ABL) Overview. |
Describe how the ABL evolves with time in both fair weather and synoptically windy weather. Explain ABL flows in mountains regions, and near fronts and thunderstorms. Describe how statistics can be used to describe turbulence strength. Relate smoke dispersion to stability. Describe the NWP process. Explain teh pros and cons of ensemble forecasting. |
| Day 20 on 21 Nov 2023 | F5 | Lab | Last 30 minutes: • The groups who will present the next fire case (Ft. McMurray) will plan which students present which parts. Resources: Presentation Tips and use the the link to those Fire Cases. • The other groups start the assigned readings on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP, Stull, Chapter 20), and get started on the Canvas quiz. |
Exlain the steps in NWP, and relate NWP to wildfire weather forecasting. |
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